August gave us wild rides with swings as big as 40 cents in corn. As we start September and near harvest, the yields will start to take precedent over other news.  Exports have been strong and markets have been well supported.  Going forward into next year, we would expect a serious battle for acres, especially if more wheat is planted.  Near term, with the Funds nearly 2 billion bushels long in the corn market, we would expect profit taking.  If I were a Fund manager, I would start this process before harvest and other seasonal pressure softened the market. So, while the market is strong, finish making you sales on your guaranteed bushels and if harvest prices stay strong, we can sell right off the combine!  If they don't, and I do expect profit taking, we can store the remaining grain and wait to see what spring brings.  That is why, I still highly recommend hedging any unpriced grain; if the market moves either way, you will be covered. Dec. corn is trying to hit $4.50 and I think this is the target the Funds may push it to, however, once the "bell is rung" how many sell orders are looming at this range?  No one knows for sure, but again we have NEVER seen the Funds NOT take profits!  Beans have tried to hold above $10.00 and currently, despite wide basis's, we can still price beans at over $9.00 cash-very profitable!  It looks as though S. America is planting a lot of beans again and between their planting and our harvest, we will likely see seasonal and profit taking pressure.  However, as long as China continue to consume such vast quantities, exports and demand will stay strong.  We must watch the Asian economy, as lately there have been some softening signs.   
   Wheat producers should absolutely lock in some cash prices for next summer on anticipated yields. I would hedge the remaining, as these prices, above $7.00 are excellent.  How wonderful for the US to finally have a bigger piece of the export pie!  However, wheat is a crop that is planted every 6 weeks or so, worldwide and with these prices, no doubt, a lot of wheat will be planted.
   Finally, the cattle market has been on fire and given us really wonderful opportunities to lock in fall, winter and even spring prices.  As we get into fall, with the Labor Day buying over and the beginning of the "fall run" we should see continued pressure on the Feeder market.  While the economic news has fairly dismal, it hasn't  dampened the cattle prices recently.  However, if we continue to get gloomy recovery reports, it will likely start to pressure prices.  Overall, though the market will find support due to short supplies and steady demand.     
Please call our office if you have questions or need assistance.
Happy Labor Day!!
Linda Cruikshank
PFM/EH

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