"Tearing Apart the Wire"

Are you like me?  Do you have multiple blogs that require multiple posts each per week?  Where is a girl to find fresh inspiration?  The newswire.  The ag news feed on my quote system is an endless wellspring of mainstream claptrap sufficient to drive Telly Savalas to pull his hair out by the roots.  (If you are under the age of 40, please pause here, open a new tab in your browser and google "Telly Savalas".  All will become clear.)

From today's wire regarding Friday's semi-annual USDA "Cattle Inventory Report":

 Analysts and industry observers estimated that the USDA will report another dip in the cattle herd compared with last year . . .  Survey participants said the twice-yearly cattle data typically aren't a market mover. Instead, a brokerage firm's live-cattle futures trader said, the semi-annual figures offer those in the business a glimpse into what to expect with respect to the number of cattle that might become available in the next year or so . . . "this helps those in the cattle industry look at what 2010 through 2012 prices may be."  Almost every semi-annual cattle survey category is at less than 100%, which reinforces the fact that cattle feeders are cutting back the cattle herd . . . That, he said, should eventually inspire the beef-side of the market and drive fed cattle prices higher to the point where producers can again start to become profitable - but demand remains a crucial unknown.

Wow.  It's really amazing how people can write and speak and yet say nothing.  This mystifies me.  Every time I speak or write, I always seem to make some sort of a point.  Am I doing it wrong?  Should I be aspiring to the art of evasive doublespeak?  Nah.

1. ""Survey participants said the twice-yearly cattle data typically aren't a market mover."

Okay, then why are we talking about it?  Shouldn't we just stop right there and move our focus to something relevant?  Dude, only in America can a guy start a piece by declaring the unimportance of the topic . . .  and then go on for another 6 paragraphs.

2.  "this (looking forward) helps those in the cattle industry look at what 2010 through 2012 prices might be."

Yeah, that's been working REALLY well.  Let's do more of that.  The remedy for the losses being incurred by the cattle industry is MORE FORECASTING!  In related news, scientists have discovered that the fastest way to sober up is to have another drink. Youbetcha.  (Snifter clink Ann Coulter)

3.  "cutting back the cattle herd . . . should eventually inspire the beef side of the market and drive fed cattle prices higher to the point where producers can again start to become profitable . . ."

Gee, that would be great except A.) beef demand does NOT dictate profitability in the cattle business.  Competence dictates profitability.  B.) Higher prices do not correlate to increased profitability.  In fact, high absolute prices tend to correlate to shrinking margins.  For example, if fat cattle miraculously traded at $100 tomorrow, what do you think the salebarn action would look like immediately following that jump in fat prices?  Uh-huh.  The euphoria on the fat side would result in feeder prices rallying MORE than the relative rally in the fats, thus WORSENING the feeding margin - not improving it. 

4.  " - but demand remains a crucial unknown."

In other words, the market might go up - but it might go down, too.  Nice hedge, Homeslice.  Very subtle.  No one caught on to what you were doing. 

Talking heads beware.  If you say silly things, I will call you out and tear you up.  Think before you speak.  If you don't know what you are talking about, it is best to lay low.  This is good advice in general, not just in the cattle business.

Forecasters are killing the North American Cattle Industry.
"Global warming" is a complete fraud designed to advance the cause of socialism and enslave humanity.
Abortion is the murder of an innocent human being and is never justified under any circumstance whatsoever.
Every human being is a question, to which the ONLY answer is Jesus Christ.

Ann Barnhardt
Barnhardt Capital Management, Inc.
www.Barnhardt.biz
888-799-4577
Ann@Barnhardt.biz

Bud Williams Marketing, Inc.
www.BudWilliamsMarketing.com
877-799-4577
Ann@BudWilliamsMarketing.com