thoughts week of 10.17.09
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 09:40AM on 11/18/2009
The first significant weather event of November brought heavy, wet snow to extreme southern Nebraska from Hebron eastward through Falls City. Snowfall totals ranged from 3-10 inches, with water ratio's in the 3.5-1 to 5-1 ratios. Very sloppy snow that did bring down power lines in a few areas. Although no crop damage reports have been relayed to my office, I suspect that the snow probably brought down some standing corn and milo.
For the next 10-14 days, forecast models indicate the greatest potential for significant weather lies with a system currently projected to move across northern Oklahoma from late on 11/23 through early on 11/25. Current projections indicate the KS/NE border region will be under the gun for possible accumulations of wet, heavy snow. A slightly northward track would bring the southern 1/3 of the state under the snow, while a track slightly south of the present forecast would leave the state high and dry.. At this time, not significant weather is expected across the central Plains during the Thanksgiving weekend, but the models become very aggressive with storm activity by 11/30. Temperatures may be below normal across the eastern half of the state, while normal to above normal temperatures are possible across the western half of the state. Several possible storms are projected to move across the central Plains with the potential to bring accumulating snow and/or ice during the first week of December. Since these storms are almost 14 days into the future, confidence is low about their placement and strength.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
For the next 10-14 days, forecast models indicate the greatest potential for significant weather lies with a system currently projected to move across northern Oklahoma from late on 11/23 through early on 11/25. Current projections indicate the KS/NE border region will be under the gun for possible accumulations of wet, heavy snow. A slightly northward track would bring the southern 1/3 of the state under the snow, while a track slightly south of the present forecast would leave the state high and dry.. At this time, not significant weather is expected across the central Plains during the Thanksgiving weekend, but the models become very aggressive with storm activity by 11/30. Temperatures may be below normal across the eastern half of the state, while normal to above normal temperatures are possible across the western half of the state. Several possible storms are projected to move across the central Plains with the potential to bring accumulating snow and/or ice during the first week of December. Since these storms are almost 14 days into the future, confidence is low about their placement and strength.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
