Ah, fundamental analysis.  It is one of the surest paths to failure I can think of.  Failure, and possibly also insanity.  First, what is fundamental analysis?  It is the study of such things as aggregate supply, aggregate demand, crop conditions, cattle on feed, beef demand, carcass weights, slaughter levels . . . you know what I'm talking about.  That stuff.

On the surface, you would think that these objective, mostly observable factors would be a completely valid means of navigating a market.  Well, yes.  You would think.  But, as it turns out, they are not.  Now, we can argue this until the cows come home (no pun intended), but the response I will always have waiting is . . . how has fundamental analysis worked for ya?

The universal answer is:  EXTREMELY POORLY.  Case in point right now is the corn market.  Everyone agrees that there is a boat load of corn out there getting ready to be harvested.  It is also agreed that corn demand has ebbed since the price of petroleum has pulled back since last year.  And yet despite this, the price of corn continues to ratchet higher and higher, causing many a market participant to scratch their heads at the very least, and to beat their heads repeatedly against hard objects at most.  In other words, fundamental analysis doesn't work.

We all know that the same applies to the cattle markets - perhaps even more so.  Some folks in this industry argue very lucidly that fundamental analysis is a CONTRA-indicator when it comes to cattle.  Years ago, a fellow that used to be in the same office as me had a client who would literally trade markets by holding charts of said markets UPSIDE DOWN - and you know what?  That guy made money.  Back when I used to be a fundamental analyst / forecaster, I had the sneaking suspicion that certain clients were consistently FADING, or doing the opposite of what the "research" implied.  Fair enough.  DO WHAT WORKS.  REJECT THAT WHICH FAILS.

Personally, that's what I did about 5 years ago.  After being "shown the light", I rejected fundamental analysis and forecasting.  I didn't so much REJECT it, as much as I simply acknowledged that which I had known all along:  it doesn't work.

Give it some thought.  If you're ready to reject something which your own personal experience (and perhaps even suffering) tells you does not work, you know how to get a hold of me.

Forecasters are killing the North American Cattle Industry.
"Global warming" is a complete fraud designed to advance the cause of socialism and enslave humanity.
Abortion is the murder of an innocent human being and is never justified under any circumstance whatsoever.
Every human being is a question, to which the ONLY answer is Jesus Christ.