thoughts week of 11.03.09
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 05:07AM on 11/05/2009
It appears conditions will remain favorable for harvest activity through Saturday. There is a slight risk for moisture from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but the models continue to weaken this event with each successive run. In a span of two days, the models have went from heavy rain and snow to light rain and flurries. The next significant moisture chances right now are indicated from late next Wednesday through Thursday (11th-12th) If the models are correct, then accumulating snowfall would be possible across the western half of the state. The models then develop a monster storm next Saturday (14th) over the central Plains, similar in intensity to the pre-Halloween system. Confidence in the intensity and timing of the Thursday and Saturday storms are low-moderate right now. Recent model trends have develop systems to fast, so we might be seeing the models attempt to break down the central U.S. upper air ridge to quickly. That being said, often the depiction of a large storm in the later period forecasts indicates that the models are anticipating a major event, but are having trouble with the timing. This should serve as a warning that this stretch of dry weather and favorable harvest weather is likely to end sometime near mid-month.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
