thoughts week of 11.10.09
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 07:47AM on 11/12/2009
Anyway here is what the models are hinting at. A low pressure trough will cross the Plains and bring an increasing chance for rain from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. The best coverage by the models appears to be across the northwestern 1/2 of the state, with the lightest totals across southeastern Nebraska. Cold air will be drawn into the region on the backside of the exiting low pressure system Saturday. A powerful wave looks to develop across the central Plains on Sunday. Weather models offer three different solutions to this storm, (1) split the energy north and south of Nebraska allowing us to escape most of significant moisture (2) develop a surface low along the NE/KS border and slowly move it eastward bring accumulating snow and/or rain to the southern half of the state (3) drop the low pressure into Oklahoma and keeping most of the moisture across Kansas and points east. Solution 1 looks the least likely, with an even split between 2 and 3. Producers should definitely keep track of this developing storm as it could produce wet snow if the NE/KS border track materializes. After the system moves east of the Plains on Tuesday, weather models indicate an absence of significant weather (precip) impacting Nebraska through the 27th. I suspect this dry forecast will likely change by next weeks update.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
